These use cases will require network performance to increase fold over current levels across all network parameters, as measured by latency, throughput, reliability, and scale.
- Associate Professor (Reader) of Technology Management.
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- The Theory of the Moire Phenomenon: Volume II Aperiodic Layers (Computational Imaging and Vision).
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To get there, mobile operators must invest in all network domains, including spectrum, radio access network RAN infrastructure, transmission, and core networks Exhibit 1. Many elements of current 5G technology build on 4G networks, rather than representing a complete departure—and that means mobile operators can take an evolutionary approach to infrastructure investment. For instance, operators could begin by upgrading the capacity of their existing 4G macro network by refarming a portion of their 2G and 3G spectrum, or by acquiring additional spectrum when available.
This evolutionary approach will be the natural path for most operators, allowing them to minimize investments while the incremental revenue potential of 5G remains uncertain. When network upgrades are no longer sufficient to support the increased traffic, operators will need to build new macro sites or small cells. That point in time will vary by location, but simulations show that most operators will need to embark on significant new build-out between and Exhibit 2.
That shift will be the primary driver behind network cost increases. Although mobile operators will take different approaches to 5G infrastructure investment, we identified some trends for all network domains. There is still low spectrum coming to auction in low bands in many countries, but most countries will primarily use them for increasing 4G traffic over the short term. Mobile players are testing spectrum from 3.
Most, however, are focusing on acquiring 3. These bands will be the first up for auction in most of the world. The new spectrum will give operators greater bandwidth and a consequential increase in air capacity. Consider the European Union, which is now releasing up to megahertz bandwidth on 3. Operators that do not undertake acquisitions and continue to rely on legacy bands could soon run into capacity issues. Even if new spectrum is introduced, mobile operators will need to increase their infrastructure investment significantly to overcome certain limitations.
For example, high-frequency spectrum provides extra capacity but comes with much greater propagation limitations. Trials of 3. The 26 gigahertz and higher spectrum bands will have even greater propagation limits. As new spectrum is introduced, mobile operators will need to improve radio interfaces and antennas to increase efficiency of new spectrum. As handset and traffic demand shifts out of legacy 2G and 3G, operators can increase capacity by refarming spectrum from these bands to 4G and 5G.
The road to 5G: The inevitable growth of infrastructure cost | McKinsey
In the United States, operators will decommission 2G before 3G. Over the long term, the new spectrum may facilitate large-scale adoption of unlicensed access. Once that occurs, operators will face additional challenges related to controlling spectrum access. In rural and suburban areas, as well as along roadways, operators can handle increased traffic simply by densifying existing networks with macro sites. Despite a difficult environment, telecom operators are sustaining their level of investment Europe is the only region not benefiting from the strong growth of the digital economy.
Furthermore, telecom operators are generating the vast majority of investments, thought they benefit only from a decreasing third of the added value. Furthermore, with the current legal and regulatory cycles not in line with the long cycles of telecom investment, the telecom sector lacks the visibility to further justify continued investments in our digital infrastructures. For a digital New Deal fostering Telecom investments Given the strong growth in telecom services usage and the economic context, it is critical to support the investment effort of the telecommunication operators.
Telecom operators call for a digital New Deal that will foster telecommunication investment: Guarantee regulatory predictability to ensure necessary visibility for the telecom investments Set-up fiscal and financial incentives reduction of over-taxation to stimulate private investment in high-speed networks Set-up regulatory and fiscal level-playing field for all actors in the digital ecosystem Build trust in the networks in this digital age Public Authorities to stimulate the development of the digital economy The full report can be downloaded at www.
The internet has rapidly evolved from a static data platform to become a streaming video platform, and is soon expected to see its next wave of growth in machine-to-machine and any-to-any video communications. But the public internet also needs to evolve further, which not only requires investment in capacity but increasingly requires higher quality, security and privacy assurances to support a next generation of internet applications, for example machine-to-machine applications. IP interconnection has long been a complex and very informal economy, including barter trade, handshake agreements and joint investments.
Existing IP interconnection agreements such as transit and peering are seeing a significant increase in and growing imbalance of IP traffic as the result of streaming video.
Most of the industry is adapting flexibly to new business models. New interconnection agreements e. Combined with the very competitive market for last mile broadband internet services in Europe, this market seems well positioned for growth, investment and innovation. The full report can be downloaded at: www. Kurt is a Partner based in Brussels, with over 20 years of strategy consulting experience. He has lived and worked in Europe, Asia and North America.
Kurt advises large and mid-size global clients in the automotive and manufacturing industries aerospace, construction, electronics on assignments such as:. In addition, he advises in the area of Operations Management in international context cross-industry, covering Sourcing, Manufacturing, Supply Chain Management, and overall Performance Improvement. He is fluent in French, Dutch and English. Gregory Pankert is Partner based in Arthur D. His experience mainly covers market-entry and growth strategies, content strategies, and regulatory strategies in all segments of the TIME sector, as well as in other network industries e.
Gregory has also built experience in leading company transformation programs, helping clients define disruptive business models and strategies and translate those into practice in terms of governance and organization redesign, post-merger integration, performance management and change management.
Frederik is a Partner at Arthur D. Most of his work is focused on helping organizations enact the changes required to improve performance and realize their objectives. He has over 30 years of experience in management consulting. Little since and is based in Brussels and in Paris. Ignacio joined Arthur D.
Little in as business analyst and climbed all the steps until becoming a Partner in In , the FCC seconded Mr. GTE Internetworking , one of the world's largest backbone internet service providers. Marcus is the author of numerous papers, a book on data network design.
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He either led or served as first author for numerous studies for the European Parliament, the European Commission, and national governments and regulatory authorities around the world. Marcus holds a B. This blog is part of a series following the Bruegel annual meetings, which brought together nearly 1, participants for two days of policy debate and discussion.
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